Section III – Post-Season Tournaments

Bracket Pool
First – What is a bracket pool?
This pool is simply a pool of contestants trying to see who individually can pick the most straight up winners for all of the tournaments up-coming games and rounds.
Of major importance this particular pool is one of the most entertaining and extremely profound events in all of college basketball.
In 2025 the ESPN pool alone amassed over 24 million – yes, 24,000,000 contestants. Wow!
For more informed picking please review the following table on first round data.

Championship Pool
Straight-up wins and losses
Four Year Average
Seeds – First Round

8 vs	7 vs	6 vs	5 vs	4 vs	3 vs	2 vs	1 vs
9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
6-10	11-5	8-8	10-6	14-2	15-1	14-2	15-1
25-23			68-12

Note:
First Round Seeds # 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5
Picking these top seeds in the first round is definitely a winning strategy resulting
in a four year 68-12, 85% advantage!

First Round Seeds # 8, 7, & 6 Vs #9, 10 & 11
In this particular seed category, the teams all match up closely so picking the
winning team is statistically difficult and as expected the better seed won just 25-
23, 52% of the time!
So in this case I suggest doing your homework and factor in other accepted
handicapping practices.
Final Round:
For this round it’s best to pick a top seed, preferably a #1. Number 1 seeds have
won the National Championship 3 out of the last 4 times!

The Final March Championship Tournament
Admittedly, all of us are caught up in the drama of the March championship tournament. It’s the very best teams playing their last games to determine the best in the nation!
As a result of this, many bet a higher percentage of these games than usual and higher amounts of money.
Herein and examined in detail, this is just the opposite of the right thing to do which is to “bet fewer games and wager less amounts.”

The Final Championship Tournament
Betting at the end of the season conference tournaments and particularly and more importantly betting the final championship tournament games is wrought with “madness”.
First and foremost, during these particular games, major upsets occur more often than normal. For example and just to mention a few, during the 2022 games:
1st Round
Kentucky, a number 2 seed was an 18 point favorite over a number 15 seed and lost straight up by 6 points, a 24 point ATS loss!

Connecticut, a number 5 seed, was a 7 point favorite over a number 12 seed and lost by 7 points, a 14 point ATS loss!
2nd Round
Baylor, a number 1 seed was an 8 point favorite over a number 8 seed and lost by 7 points, a 15 point ATS loss!
Auburn, a number 2 seed, was a 7 point favorite over a number 10 seed and lost by 18 points, a 25 point ATS loss!
A number 7 seed as a 9 point favorite over a number 15 seed lost by 10 points, a 19 point ATS loss!
3rd Round
Gonzaga, a number 1 seed was a 10 point favorite versus a number 4 seed lost by 6 points, a 16 point ATS loss!
Finally, and yet another classic example of the March “Madness” is the final 2021
Gonzaga/Baylor game
Gonzaga was a 5 point favorite and lost by 16 points, a 21 point ATS loss!
Then, of course, both had major let downs in this year’s tournament, Baylor losing as a favorite in just the 2nd round and Gonzaga losing as a favorite in just the 3rd round

Conclusion
Yes, there are also strange upsets during the regular season. However, these types of major upsets are particularly evident during the end of the season championships. Even the so-called informed and good handicappers with their infinite wisdom often have it all wrong.
And of course many theories for these uncommon number of upsets abound! The reason for all of this I will respectfully submit to the likes of Bobby Knight and Coach “K”. The hard cold facts are clear. Betting these tournament games are more often than not a losing proposition.

National Championship Tournament
Favorite Categories

	1/4	5/9	10/14	15/19	20+
1st Rd	15-17	8-13	8-5	11-4	9-6	51-45	83-82
2nd Rd	4-3	15-14	4-5			23-22
Sweet 16	2-6	6-6	1-3			9-15
Elite 8	4-1	4-2				8-3	14-6
Final 4	2-1	1-1	1-0			4-2
Finals	1-1	1-0				2-1
Totals	28-29	35-36	14-13	11-4	9-6	97-88	97-88
Totals	77-78			20-10		97-88	97-88

The above chart is for the three years 2022, 2024, and 2025 combined.
Note” ATS (against the spread) results for any given favorite category will vary
year to year so be careful here!

National Invitational Tournament (N.I.T.)
Many years ago, the N.I.T. was considered a major tournament, a close second to the Big Dance Championship. However, it has since then slowly deteriorated in popularity and is now just another meaningless tournament.
There are a number of reasons for this.
First, many of the teams in this tournament feel bad because they weren’t good enough to qualify for the top-class March Madness tournament which is playing at the same time. After an exhausting seasonal thirty game schedule, they simply don’t care to continue on for what they consider a second-class event.
The year 2025 says it all! A minimum of nine teams actually declined their invite to the N.I.T.!

Conclusion
By far the most difficult end of the season tournament to handicap is the N.I.T.
Trying to predict the degree to which teams in this particular tournament care is not possible!
Stay far away from betting these games. Betting these games is simply a losing proposition.

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