Section II – Betting

Introduction

Thus far, this site has been devoted to the subject of handicapping. However, since the average handicapper’s sole purpose is to pick games in order to best the formidable odds maker (“Vegas Odds”), it’s only fitting at this time to include a few comments on the subject of betting.
First, as of early 2025, 38 states in the U.S. currently permit some form of sports betting, including the District of Columbia. Additionally, Puerto Rico also offers legal sports betting. The total amount wagered legally in the US in 2024 was nearly $149 billion, working out to an average of $2.8 billion per week. Americans were estimated to have legally wagered $3.1 billion on the NCAA Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournaments (March Madness) in 2025.
So betting is here to stay – in a big way – like it or not!

Betting Strategies

Having “Outs”
In order to bet the best line available – the preferred line – it’s important to have more than one “out.” An “out” is a person or business that posts lines and accepts bets. So, first and foremost, the golden rule of betting, the fundamental element, the core for effective betting is to have more than one out. Most rules are here to be broken, but not in this case, and for some very good reasons.
In basketball, many games end up with a winning margin very close to that of the
betting line, within just ½ to 1 point. So it’s important to have more than one “out.”
For example, in case you want to bet the favorite in a particular game and one “out” posts a spread (line) of 6, and another posts a line of 6 ½, you will obviously lay the 6. If your team then wins by a margin of 6, you “push”, but if it wins by 7 – you win. However, if you just had the one “out” and you laid the 6½, and the team wins by 6 – you lose.
This is a classic example of the importance of having more than one “out” – a golden rule of betting.

Summary for Having “Outs”
In the games, when the score ends up close to the posted lines, which happens often in basketball, the advantage of betting the preferred line is winning the game rather than losing the game, thereby greatly improving your overall winning percentages.

Sandwiching
“Sandwiching” is a strategy of betting both teams, hoping that the final score margin of victory lands between (in the middle) of the two lines, or lands on one of the lines posted.
Betting on both teams in a particular game depends on having different lines,
so having different “outs” is yet again, essential.
After many years of researching this, I have conclusively determined that in basketball, even when there is as little as 1½ point line variation, betting both teams is very rewarding.
The following example clearly explains the use of this strategy:
Team A is playing Team B
Two lines are posted, “A” is posted as an 8-point favorite, and also, as a 10-point
favorite.
Team A is then bet at as an 8-point favorite, and Team B is bet as a 10-point dog.
Here are the following outcomes:
If the score differential is 9 points, you win both bets!
If the score ends up at 8, the bet on “A” pushes, but the bet on “B” wins!
If the score on “A” ends up at 8, the bet on “A” loses, but the bet on “B” wins, and you only have to pay the 10% juice on “A”.

Summary on Sandwiching
Betting both teams when there is as little as a 1½ point line variation is very effective.
The final score margin ends up in the middle, or on one side sufficiently enough to be extremely rewarding – count on it!

Prop Betting
Some oddsmakers offer a multitude of so-called “proposition” bets. A proposition bet (prop bet, prop, novelty, or a side bet) is a bet made regarding the occurrence or non-occurrence during a game of an event not directly affecting the game’s
final outcome. Proposition bets in sports are differentiated from the general betting for or against a particular team or regarding the total number of points scored.
Since the decades of analysis and tuning my handicapping system are strictly for picking winners based on the game’s final score, I refuse to comment or give advice on bets which do not affect the final outcome of the game. I therefore recommend staying away from proposition betting – K.I.S.S. – “Keep It Simple, Stupid!”

Betting Momentum
Statistically, the average handicapper should win 50% of all games played. The sad fact however, is that they lose far more than 50%!
The basic reason for this is that they have a tendency to select teams that are recently performing well particularly when they are playing teams that are performing poorly.
They simply don’t realize that the Vegas handicappers adjust these lines to account for the momentum factor.
It is therefore very important to reveal and clearly understand this issue once and for all!
The following typical momentum chart says it all!

Momentum Chart
	Momentum Edge
Hypothetical Line Adjustment	5/6	7/8	9+	Notes
0	28-19	12-8	12-9	A*
1/2	24-24	11-11	9-12	B*
Full	20-27	5-17	7-14	C*

Notes:
A) ZERO ADJUSTMENT
When Vegas doesn’t adjust the line, selecting the team with momentum, the “Mo Team” has a lot of merit. Unfortunately, “0” adjustment seldom ever occurs.
B) HALF-WAY ADJUSTMENT
Per the ½ line adjustment, when Vegas adjusts the line, about halfway between the past lines and recent performance levels, selecting a “Mo Team” has little or no merit. It is no longer of any consideration and this amount of adjustment is usually the case. An often-quoted reason for why these teams are poor selections is that they have a psychological and physical let down after exerting a lot of extra effort. This is often referred to as the “Let Down Theory.”
Regardless of the reasons, selecting Momentum Teams when Vegas adjusts the line has no merit!
C) FULL ADJUSTMENT
When Vegas adjusts the line to the fullest extent, select the other side. However, this amount of adjustment seldom ever happens.

Momentum Example
A coin toss is to a degree a good example of the momentum issue.
If a coin comes up heads 50% of the time and then the same coin in just the last few tosses comes up 100% of the time, this is momentum.
However, then betting that this same coin will surely come up heads the next time around is nonsense! The odds/statistics for this to happen is still just 50%! Case closed!
Additionally with basketball, unlike the same coin, teams for certain reason can and do change. However, when this does happen the professional odds makers are more often than not aware of the reasons why and adjust the line accordingly. Count on it.

Momentum Summary
I have researched this subject extensively in a number of different ways and have conclusively determined the selecting Momentum Teams is almost always the demise of good, effective handicapping – so be very careful here! To all of you Momentum advocates, I’m sorry, but these are the cold, hard facts.
Betting momentum teams when the line has been adjusted is indeed suspect!

Late Season Games
February
Late into the season, just a couple of weeks before The Championship Tournament, some teams lack interest and “let down” and since those particular teams are hard to identify handicapping winners at this time of the year is a degree more difficult.
For Example:
One of the most telling and classic examples of this particular issue is – the final score deviation from the official line.
One year, on a February day, a deviation of 23 to 39 occurred 5 times in just this one day – a good classical example of this issue!
February 24th Pathetic Performances

Line	Score	Deviation
13	-26	39
21	51*	30
8	34	26
11	-14	25
6	-17	23

*A scoring margin of 51 points is nearly impossible!
Totally out of line!
There are many theories advanced for these late season issues. For example:

• Career ending players lacking interest
• Looking ahead to the NCAA tournament
• In the case of the very best teams that already know that they will be a top seeded tournament teams and have a “letdown”

Late Season Games
Conclusion
Picking winners at this time of the season is a degree more difficult.
So – reduce your number of picks and the amounts wagered.

<< Back to The Spreadsheet

Forward to Tournaments >>